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It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.