Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
